Exposure + Opportunity = Infection. All you need to know
The interwebs are full of dangerous things
There are a couple of videos going around the interwebs where doctors in public forums basically are asking various public bodies to set policies which allow children to die. These videos seem to have captured the hearts and minds of a large segment of the population who are apparently suffering from Covid fatigue. The obvious problem (people are dying of Covid) seems to have an obvious solution (Masking + Social Distancing, vaccination of the population, wait 5 weeks and breakout is but a memory). This equation (exposure+opportunity=infection) is too hard for people in my community to to accept. The wrong answer (live life as if there is no pandemic + magical thinking = protection for me) is the one being chosen by many of my neighbors. Although the number of recent deathbed conversions (“I’m dying of Covid, please get vaccinated”) attests to the regrets people have after picking the wrong answer in the big quiz of life, the popularity of folks offering a false narrative is enduring. Why is this?
Trust Me, I’m a Doctor
The physicians on these videos seem just like, well, me. They went to medical school. Did residency. Describe a practice. The you look into their story and….Take, for example, Dr Stock from Indiana. He describes himself to the Mt. Vernon Community School board as a “family doctor.” In fact, several people have contacted me to ask if I know of him. He spends 6 minutes talking nonsense about Covid-19 and trying to talk people out of getting vaccinated. Turns out, he is a “functional family doctor”. There is no such speciality in the catalogue of accepted specialties. In my department we provide training in the specialty of family medicine and it is an additional 3 years following graduation from medical school. Dr Stock’s formal training was in ophthalmology (diseases of the eye). He has had no formal training or work experience in infectious disease. We in family medicine are firm believers in vaccination and, in Alabama, provide over well half of all vaccinations in rural areas. Opinions are like, well, everyone has one. However completion of medical school does not entitle you to yell loudly and pretend like your opinion overrides the facts. This man is trying to make a buck by spreading false statements. Trace the credentials of any of the Youtube stars in this saga and the story will be the same.
Don’t Let Big Words Fool You
Many of these videos feature big words that are misused. One of the arguments against masking, for example, implies that masks are ineffective because they will not stop “aerosolized” viruses. Often they will cite “literature” as proof. In the case of masking, the literature cited is from very specific medical procedures. In this case the word aerosolized in the medical literature is very specific. A mask such as those worn in public, for example, will not stop the virus if it is aerosolized in a medical procedure such as intubation. Community spreading is much more complex and involves the sneeze mechanism, the cough mechanism, the cover attempt, and how the hands and face are cleaned. There is ample evidence that, in community settings, masks will prevent spread from casual contact such as occurs in everyday life, some of which is found here. The evidence for masking and social distancing is overwhelmingly in favor of its use to prevent the spread of Covid-19 and, if schools are going to have in person instruction, the use should be mandatory.
The World Is Not As It Appears (To the Naked Eye)
The age old belief that nature will provide a cure has been around for 10,000 years. In the case of Covid-19, this belief is manifest by stating that the current human condition now does not include adequate sunlight, the a lack of sunlight is causative, and that dietary supplementation (specifically with Vitamin D) can effectively be used to combat the virus. The belief, if followed to its obvious conclusion, ends in clothing and air conditioning being causative and nudity resulting in a cure. Clearly not the case in Provincetown. In fact, the evidence does not support anything for Covid-19 transmission other than the standard causal chain (exposure + opportunity = infection). As with almost all viruses, once infection takes hold, there is no effective treatment. Prevention by reducing exposure (masking and social distancing) and reducing opportunity (vaccine) are our only out. The observation that some people get sick and others do not and speculation about why some or stricken and others are not has been around as long as there have been people.
Vaccines Are a MIRACLE
Many of those objecting to the Covid-19 vaccine actually object to all vaccines. Often there is a claim that vaccines cause a derangement of the immune system. Having lived through a time where vaccines were developed, many infectious diseases have been controlled as a consequence. I never see smallpox, diphtheria, polio, measles, or standard chicken pox. One out of three children used to die before the age of five due to infectious disease. The diseases of aging such as diabetes are indeed a side effect of vaccination. We now have a vaccine that is incredibly effective against cervical cancer. Many more people are able to live to old age when they are more likely to get diabetes, hypertension, and other diseases. Improved recreation, diet, and reduction in pollution, not eliminating vaccination, are the solutions. The way the arguments are framed are along the lines of unless the vaccine is 100% effective, it should not be used at all OR Covid is no worse than a cold so why vaccinate OR the side effects of vaccination are worse than Covid-19. Once the causative agent is in a group that works closely together, about half catch it from each other. This is true for the households that those folks go back to as well. Covid-19, thus, is like those ripples in a pond in that it continually spreads. In a vaccinated community, the ripples spread far less and the waves are much shorter and eventually the waves die down. In an unvaccinated community the spread is much further, much faster, and the illness is much worse. For example, in Alabama, only for every 10000 vaccinated people only one has an illness severe enough to be in the hospital with Covid right now but 5 out ot 1000 unvaccinated people are there. Your chances of hospitalization are 75 TIMES higher without vaccination. With Covid-19 over 90% of those in the ICU on a ventilator (breathing machine) and over 95% of those who are dying from Covid-19 are unvaccinated. The oft misquoted British experience (more vaccinated people seriously ill than unvaccinated ones) is a fallacy. The vaccination of the citizens of Great Britain has been an overwhelming victory over Covid-19. Here is some context for breakthrough cases.
When 90% of People Get Better, ANYthing MIGHT Work
Many of these people spend an inordinate amount of energy touting ineffective “treatments” over vaccination. Most prominent currently is the misinformation that an antiparasitic drug (Ivermectin) and another supplement (zinc) if given “correctly” will cure Covid-19. Not to belabor the point but these treatments and all the others tested to date are not effective. Ivermectin specifically is not effective against any virus, which includes the coronavirus. The “study” which is used to support its use was withdrawn due to ethical concerns . Zinc has been proven not to work. When 90% of people will get better no matter what, things appear to be effective that are not. For this virus there is no treatment more effective than avoidance and vaccination.
Natural Immunity Not All It’s Cracked Up To Be (For Covid-19)
I am old enough to remember chicken pox parties where parents would try to time their children’s varicella outbreak. They worked, in that 85 of 100 people at such a party would get the disease and developed lifetime immunity. However, the children were also at risk for pneumonia and death from flesh eating bacteria. Occasionally children would die. Adults who had natural immunity also can (and do) develop shingles. Turns out vaccination is the way to go for chicken pox. Many of anti-Covid vaccine folks couch their concern in a plea that “natural immunity” is better. This coronavirus is probably 10 times more lethal than the flu and 1000 times more lethal than chicken pox. In addition, natural immunity seems not provide the protection from reinfection nearly as well as the vaccine. Vaccine induced immunity seems to protect more effectively.
In summary, please go get vaccinated. Also, if someone forwards you, shares, or otherwise tried to expose you to misinformation please hit delete.
https://c19vaccine.southalabama.edu/